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BASE-RATE FALLACY Errors in both the availability and representativeness
heuristic occur because people tend to ignore the probability of a given event, a
phenomenon called the base-rate fallacy (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). This
fallacy ...
Catherine A. Sanderson, 2009
Axelsson concluded that false positives will always remain a major problem and
called this phenomenon, the base-rate fallacy of intrusion detection. We attempt
to address the base-rate fallacy. We claim that, even though the fallacy mandates
...
Mihai Christodorescu, Somesh Jha, Douglas Maughan, 2007
3
Stock-market Psychology: How People Value and Trade Stocks
The Base-Rate Fallacy and Representativeness Tversky and Kahneman (1982a)
propose that people tend to simplify their judgments and decisions through the
use of a few simple heuristics that help them avoid difficulties. The first ...
4
The Law and Economics of Irrational Behavior
This problem can be illustrated by the base-rate fallacy and conservatism. 2.3.1.1
.3 Base-rate fallacy. In Bayesian-type problems, people typically estimate the
posterior probability of an event (such as that a person is a lawyer or has a
disease, ...
Francesco Parisi, Vernon L. Smith, 2005
Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online.
Frederic P. Miller, Agnes F. Vandome, McBrewster John, 2010
6
Facilitation of Bayesian Decision Making
This within-subjects variation in attendance to base rates has been used to
criticize the theory of base-rate neglect, suggesting that the base-rate fallacy may
be a function of the task or interpretation of the task (Birnbaum, 1983; Koehler, ...
Yasmine Lauren Konheim Kalkstein, 2008
7
Induction and Deduction in the Sciences
Likelihoods And The Base-rate Fallacy One way to introduce the base-rate
fallacy is via the so-called Harvard Medical School test. Here are some details. A
test for the presence of a disease has two outcomes, 'positive' and 'negative'.
8
The Legacy of Solomon Asch: Essays in Cognition and Social ...
Contingent Goals: Narrative Inference and the Base Rate Fallacy The
paradigmatic and narrative modes are associated with fundamental orientations
that affect inference in general. The deployment of the two sets of strategies as a
function of ...
9
Social and Cognitive Pharmacy: Theory and Case Studies
Base-rate fallacy The base-rate fallacy is the failure to take account of the prior
probability of an event when making a judgement. Exploring the concept: the
base-rate fallacy Remember the thinking, again in a previous example, that the ...
10
Adaptive Thinking: Rationality in the Real World
Note that Inhelder and Piaget asked children for frequency judgments, not
probability judgments. Base-Rate Fallacy Among all cognitive illusions, the "base
-rate fallacy" has probably received the most attention. The neglect of base rates
...
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Schizophrenia Genetics: A Revolution with a Dash of Caution
This is primarily because of something called the base-rate fallacy whereby a partially sensitive and accurate test will result in many more false ... «BioNews, 7月 14»
The World Outdoors: Psychologist probes birder behaviour
... bird watchers neglect to properly account for the low probability of seeing rare species, Scialfa says this is known as the “base-rate fallacy.”. «London Free Press, 7月 14»
Come on in, the water's fine, or why there's no logic in fearing a trip …
The other is called a base-rate fallacy. The fact that Sheila Nabb was beaten here tends to outweigh, in our fallacious minds, the fact that the ... «National Post, 12月 13»
Policy: Twenty tips for interpreting scientific claims
Beware the base-rate fallacy. The ability of an imperfect test to identify a condition depends upon the likelihood of that condition occurring (the ... «Nature.com, 11月 13»
Building Bridges to the Good Life and the Good Society
The list of biases is long, from the base-rate fallacy to self-flattering and overconfident behaviors and then the framing, omission and status quo ... «Metapsychology, 7月 09»
