ЧТО ОЗНАЧАЕТ СЛОВО SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
Байесовская вероятность
Байесовская вероятность является одной из различных интерпретаций понятия вероятности. Байесовскую интерпретацию вероятности можно рассматривать как расширение логики высказываний, которая позволяет рассуждать с гипотезами, т. Е. Предложения, чья истина или ложность неопределенны. Байесовская вероятность относится к категории доказательственных вероятностей; для оценки вероятности гипотезы байесовский вероятност указывает некоторую предварительную вероятность, которая затем обновляется в свете новых релевантных данных. Байесовская интерпретация предоставляет стандартный набор процедур и формул для выполнения этого расчета. В отличие от интерпретации вероятности как «частоты» или «склонности» какого-либо явления, байесовская вероятность - это величина, которую мы назначаем для целей представления состояния знания или состояния веры. В байесовском представлении вероятность присваивается гипотезе, тогда как при частом представлении гипотеза обычно тестируется без назначения вероятности.
Значение слова subjective probability в словаре английский языка
Определение субъективной вероятности в словаре является мерой или оценкой степени уверенности, которую может иметь при возникновении события, определяемого субъективными критериями.
КНИГИ НА АНГЛИЙСКИЙ ЯЗЫКЕ, ИМЕЮЩЕЕ ОТНОШЕНИЕ К СЛОВУ «SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY»
Поиск случаев использования слова
subjective probability в следующих библиографических источниках. Книги, относящиеся к слову
subjective probability, и краткие выдержки из этих книг для получения представления о контексте использования этого слова в литературе на английский языке.
1
Subjective Probability: The Real Thing
A concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view.
2
Degrees of Belief:
Subjective Probability and Engineering ...
Turning to what this requires, it lends substance to professional judgment by examining its diagnostic, inductive, and interpretive elements.
Steven G. Vick, American Society of Civil Engineers,
2002
3
Experts in Uncertainty : Opinion and
Subjective Probability ...
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making.
Roger M. Cooke Associate Professor of Mathematics and Informatics Delft University of Technology,
1991
4
Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making
102 Chapter 4 Probability Subjective Probability The subjective method of
assigning probability is based on the feelings or insights of the person
determining the probability. Subjective probability comes from the person's
intuition or reasoning.
5
Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes
Fabio Spizzichino. Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes Fabio Spizzichino
Department of Mathematics University La Sapienza Rome Italy CHAPMAN &
HALL/CRC Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C. Library of Congress
...
6
Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk ...
Current. Best. Practices. What practical advice can be given? While there seems
to be much to consider and change in elicitation for cost risk analysis, a start can
be made with the following procedure, which is synthesized from a number of ...
7
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness Daniel Kahneman and
Amos Tversky Subjective probabilities play an important role in our lives. The
decisions we make, the conclusions we reach, and the explanations we offer are
...
Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky,
1982
8
Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Econometric ...
Example In the case of tossing a fair coin a person is likely to assign the
subjective probability P(H) = }, because with no special information about the
chance mechanism involved the two outcomes seem a priori equally likely. In the
case ...
9
Operational Risk with Excel and VBA: Applied Statistical ...
Subjective probability renders the notion of probability subjective by regarding it
as "degrees of belief" on behalf of individuals assessing the uncertainty of a
particular situation. It depends on personal viewpoints and prior experience.
Nigel Da Costa Lewis,
2004
10
Philosophical Lectures on
Probability: Collected, Edited, ...
This allows him to replace the schema of bets to provide a new operational
definition of subjective probability free of the difficulties afflicting the former (cf. 4
note 12 at page 43) one. For a detailed exposition of such difficulties, see also
Mura, ...
Bruno de Finetti, Alberto Mura,
2008
НОВОСТИ, В КОТОРЫХ ВСТРЕЧАЕТСЯ ТЕРМИН «SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY»
Здесь показано, как национальная и международная пресса использует термин
subjective probability в контексте приведенных ниже новостных статей.
A nuclear Iran is not the only danger hovering over Israel
Multiplying such a subjective probability by the damage that is likely to be incurred produces a result, which although indefinite, should be of grave concern to all ... «Haaretz, Апр 15»
REPORT: Greece is getting ready to default
Unfortunately, continued full membership of the euro now has become an outside scenario for us with a subjective probability of only 40% (see What Are the ... «Business Insider Australia, Апр 15»
Morgan Stanley cuts 2015 Canadian GDP forecast by 0.6 per cent
“We place a subjective probability of 1 in 3 that the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in 2015.” They also expect the Canadian dollar depreciate further, ... «iPolitics.ca, Янв 15»
In Memory: Patrick Suppes, Stanford Philosopher, Scientist and …
... efforts to deepen the theoretical and empirical understanding of four major areas: the measurement of subjective probability and utility in uncertain situations, ... «Patch.com, Ноя 14»
Patrick Suppes, Stanford philosopher, scientist and Silicon Valley …
... theoretical and empirical understanding of four major areas: the measurement of subjective probability and utility in uncertain situations, the development and ... «Stanford Report, Ноя 14»
A Simple Tool for Making Better Forecasts
We have developed a method called SPIES (Subjective Probability Interval EStimates), which computes a range forecasts from a series of probability estimates, ... «blogs.hbr.org, Май 14»
General Motors Company (GM) news: Chewing The 'CUD' On …
Now we come to the line Subjective probability of upside, which puts 60% of the weight on the upside scenarios and 40% on the downsides to calculate an ... «Seeking Alpha, Фев 14»
Why We Can't End the Civil War in Syria
Similarly, the EU's recent refusal to arm opposition forces in Syria may reduce the rebels' subjective probability of victory and therefore contribute to the ... «Carnegie Europe, Фев 13»
Morgan Stanley warns of 35% chance of eurozone collapse
... from Morgan Stanley's European research team, it said: "While a eurozone break-up is not our base case scenario, we raise our subjective probability to 35% ... «Investment Week, Май 12»
Morgan Stanley Increases The Odds Of A Greek Exit To 35% Within …
"Our subjective probability for a divorce has risen to 35% and could rise rapidly in the run-up to the Greek election on June 17." They warn that a Greek exit will ... «Business Insider, Май 12»