QUÉ SIGNIFICA SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY EN INGLÉS
Probabilidad bayesiana
La probabilidad bayesiana es una de las diferentes interpretaciones del concepto de probabilidad. La interpretación bayesiana de la probabilidad puede ser vista como una extensión de la lógica proposicional que permite razonar con hipótesis, es decir, las proposiciones cuya verdad o falsedad es incierta. La probabilidad bayesiana pertenece a la categoría de probabilidad probatoria; Para evaluar la probabilidad de una hipótesis, el probabilista bayesiano especifica alguna probabilidad previa, que se actualiza a continuación a la luz de nuevos datos relevantes. La interpretación bayesiana proporciona un conjunto estándar de procedimientos y fórmulas para realizar este cálculo. En contraste con la interpretación de la probabilidad como "frecuencia" o "propensión" de algún fenómeno, la probabilidad bayesiana es una cantidad que asignamos con el propósito de representar un estado de conocimiento o un estado de creencia. En la visión bayesiana, una probabilidad se asigna a una hipótesis, mientras que bajo la vista frecuente, una hipótesis es típicamente probada sin que se le asigne una probabilidad.
definición de subjective probability en el diccionario inglés
La definición de probabilidad subjetiva en el diccionario es una medida o estimación del grado de confianza que uno puede tener en la ocurrencia de un evento, definido por criterios subjetivos.
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10 LIBROS DEL INGLÉS RELACIONADOS CON «SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY»
Descubre el uso de
subjective probability en la siguiente selección bibliográfica. Libros relacionados con
subjective probability y pequeños extractos de los mismos para contextualizar su uso en la literatura.
1
Subjective Probability: The Real Thing
A concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view.
2
Degrees of Belief:
Subjective Probability and Engineering ...
Turning to what this requires, it lends substance to professional judgment by examining its diagnostic, inductive, and interpretive elements.
Steven G. Vick, American Society of Civil Engineers,
2002
3
Experts in Uncertainty : Opinion and
Subjective Probability ...
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making.
Roger M. Cooke Associate Professor of Mathematics and Informatics Delft University of Technology,
1991
4
Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making
102 Chapter 4 Probability Subjective Probability The subjective method of
assigning probability is based on the feelings or insights of the person
determining the probability. Subjective probability comes from the person's
intuition or reasoning.
5
Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes
Fabio Spizzichino. Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes Fabio Spizzichino
Department of Mathematics University La Sapienza Rome Italy CHAPMAN &
HALL/CRC Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C. Library of Congress
...
6
Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk ...
Current. Best. Practices. What practical advice can be given? While there seems
to be much to consider and change in elicitation for cost risk analysis, a start can
be made with the following procedure, which is synthesized from a number of ...
7
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness Daniel Kahneman and
Amos Tversky Subjective probabilities play an important role in our lives. The
decisions we make, the conclusions we reach, and the explanations we offer are
...
Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky,
1982
8
Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Econometric ...
Example In the case of tossing a fair coin a person is likely to assign the
subjective probability P(H) = }, because with no special information about the
chance mechanism involved the two outcomes seem a priori equally likely. In the
case ...
9
Operational Risk with Excel and VBA: Applied Statistical ...
Subjective probability renders the notion of probability subjective by regarding it
as "degrees of belief" on behalf of individuals assessing the uncertainty of a
particular situation. It depends on personal viewpoints and prior experience.
Nigel Da Costa Lewis,
2004
10
Philosophical Lectures on
Probability: Collected, Edited, ...
This allows him to replace the schema of bets to provide a new operational
definition of subjective probability free of the difficulties afflicting the former (cf. 4
note 12 at page 43) one. For a detailed exposition of such difficulties, see also
Mura, ...
Bruno de Finetti, Alberto Mura,
2008
10 NOTICIAS EN LAS QUE SE INCLUYE EL TÉRMINO «SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY»
Conoce de qué se habla en los medios de comunicación nacionales e internacionales y cómo se emplea el término
subjective probability en el contexto de las siguientes noticias.
A nuclear Iran is not the only danger hovering over Israel
Multiplying such a subjective probability by the damage that is likely to be incurred produces a result, which although indefinite, should be of grave concern to all ... «Haaretz, Abr 15»
REPORT: Greece is getting ready to default
Unfortunately, continued full membership of the euro now has become an outside scenario for us with a subjective probability of only 40% (see What Are the ... «Business Insider Australia, Abr 15»
Morgan Stanley cuts 2015 Canadian GDP forecast by 0.6 per cent
“We place a subjective probability of 1 in 3 that the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in 2015.” They also expect the Canadian dollar depreciate further, ... «iPolitics.ca, Ene 15»
In Memory: Patrick Suppes, Stanford Philosopher, Scientist and …
... efforts to deepen the theoretical and empirical understanding of four major areas: the measurement of subjective probability and utility in uncertain situations, ... «Patch.com, Nov 14»
Patrick Suppes, Stanford philosopher, scientist and Silicon Valley …
... theoretical and empirical understanding of four major areas: the measurement of subjective probability and utility in uncertain situations, the development and ... «Stanford Report, Nov 14»
A Simple Tool for Making Better Forecasts
We have developed a method called SPIES (Subjective Probability Interval EStimates), which computes a range forecasts from a series of probability estimates, ... «blogs.hbr.org, May 14»
General Motors Company (GM) news: Chewing The 'CUD' On …
Now we come to the line Subjective probability of upside, which puts 60% of the weight on the upside scenarios and 40% on the downsides to calculate an ... «Seeking Alpha, Feb 14»
Why We Can't End the Civil War in Syria
Similarly, the EU's recent refusal to arm opposition forces in Syria may reduce the rebels' subjective probability of victory and therefore contribute to the ... «Carnegie Europe, Feb 13»
Morgan Stanley warns of 35% chance of eurozone collapse
... from Morgan Stanley's European research team, it said: "While a eurozone break-up is not our base case scenario, we raise our subjective probability to 35% ... «Investment Week, May 12»
Morgan Stanley Increases The Odds Of A Greek Exit To 35% Within …
"Our subjective probability for a divorce has risen to 35% and could rise rapidly in the run-up to the Greek election on June 17." They warn that a Greek exit will ... «Business Insider, May 12»